of what people will voting on. we have been to the netherlands, to spain, to france. tonight, we are in italy, the eu's third biggest economy, and the european frontier when it comes to migration across the mediterranean. in 2023, 157,000 refugees and migrants reached italy via sea, marking the fourth consecutive year of increasing arrivals. a 50 % rise on the previous year, and the third highest year for sea arrivals since 1998. the right—wing government of giorgia meloni was elected to deal with this problem, she has been leading the reform of asylum rules in brussels, and more recently has signed a deal with a third country, albania, to build two new detention centres, where they will process italy's backlog. not so long ago meloni's post fascist government would have been snubbed in europe, perhaps seen as an outlier. but there has been a drastic realignment, and in every country

we have visited thus far, it is the hard right that lead the polls. there are other systemic issues. its public finances are still in a precarious condition. and italy needs more workers for its various industries. but as mark lowen has been discovering, that drive to grow the workforce, is likely to be held back because of the growing hard—right influence. the big beasts of italian politics are lining up for their european battle. and at this farm south of rome, which rears 1800 buffaloes, the question is whether change is afloat. it's a very italian family business, churning out exceptional mozzarella and ricotta. the grandson of the founder says the problems are many — from european farmers being undercut by non—eu countries to another long standing italian issue. it's not that easy to find workers. the median salary in italy is not

growing up from a long time, and this is very sad because many times younger university students prefer to not work instead of working just because of this. it means they employ migrant workers to fill the gap, and there's no shortage there, with new arrivals soaring by 50% last year despite the government promising to crack down. so at the centre for young unaccompanied migrants, more keep coming and the town is feeling the strain. it's ok for now. the numbers that we are receiving now, but i don't know in the future if they will, they could increase more. if it would be ok, it would be a little difficult. you're at your maximum point, do you think? maybe. yes, i think so. they put together pieces of broken lives in a country they'll now call home. this man paid smugglers 2,000 euros to get here

from burkina faso this month. translation: lots of africans think europe is a paradise, _ but it's not true. now i tell people back home to stay there, but i know they will keep trying. and even if italy wants to stop the boats, it's impossible. so the to do list is long for giorgia meloni, elected prime minister 18 months ago and still leading the polls. the main city here, latina, mirrors italy, with the same issues and the first woman in charge. translation: the meloni | government is working well. we have problems of a falling birth rate, for example, which affects all of europe. we used to passively accept migrants, but now we have a big say in managing flows. it's important that our party wins this election so we can put forward our ideas at a european level. behind italy's blustery beauty lie its age old problems. but what has changed here in the past 18 months is who's trying to solve them. with giorgia melni dominating italian politics and hoping

to further entrench her position after these european elections. but well beyond these shores, europe's other right—wing leaders are also looking at her as a sort of figurehead, an example of what they, too, will hope to achieve. and so a key moment for italy and for europe, a vote on how to navigate these rough times. mark lowen, bbc news in latina. mark lowen rome correspondent — joins us tonight from lisbon. nathalie tocci — director for the institute of international affairs in rome. fabrizio pagani, senior adviser at vitale and co and former chief of staff for the italian finance minister. all very welcome to the programme. let me start with you, mark, it's interesting that giorgia meloni is putting a focus on the elections and plans to run as a candidate in all of the five countries of europe in

constituencies, and her party looks at to win the vote as well, so the question is what is she tried to do? what does she want to do in europe? she wants to ensure that the right wing is in charge in the key institutions, european commission, that they have a dominant say in the european parliament, that there are significant number of mps from her grouping, which encompasses lots of different countries, which is how european politics work, and countries, mvps belong to a larger groupings. she wants to ensure that her country and the political ideals her country and the political ideals her party espouses are brought forward in the european parliament. i should explain what you mentioned, she is running, but that is quite an italian thing, silvio berlusconi did it as well, and former prime ministers that it is well, they run as candidates for european election

to give it a bit of name recognition to give it a bit of name recognition to try to encourage italians to vote in the european elections, but then they do not take up their seats because the italian prime minister cannot relinquish their position to become an mvp, so she's running for her party, and a bit of a tactic, if you like, and she would be elected, of course, she's top of the list, then she would link which that and give it to one of her deputies to become an mep.— give it to one of her deputies to become an mep. what interests me nathalie tocci, _ become an mep. what interests me nathalie tocci, on _ become an mep. what interests me nathalie tocci, on migration - become an mep. what interests me nathalie tocci, on migration she - nathalie tocci, on migration she stands close to the likes of marion le pen, but marine le pen sits in another group, and identity and democracy to see group within the european parliament, and she does not want to belong to that, she sees her self in different terms, why? she is the leader however on group, so georgia _ she is the leader however on group, so georgia monona is the leader of

the ecr _ so georgia monona is the leader of the ecr group, european conservatives, and i would say that in terms _ conservatives, and i would say that in terms of— conservatives, and i would say that in terms of political ideology, you could _ in terms of political ideology, you could say— in terms of political ideology, you could say that today id is closer and further to the right than the ecr, _ and further to the right than the ecr. but — and further to the right than the ecr, but the way in the evolution of these _ ecr, but the way in the evolution of these two _ ecr, but the way in the evolution of these two groups took place doesn't have much_ these two groups took place doesn't have much to do with political ideology, it has to do with the sympathies between some of these parties _ sympathies between some of these parties and it has to be said that there _ parties and it has to be said that there isnt— parties and it has to be said that there isn't a great relationship at there isn't a great relationship at the moments. let's see what happens at the _ the moments. let's see what happens at the moment between marine le pen and georgia _ at the moment between marine le pen and georgia maloney, because in marine _ and georgia maloney, because in marine le — and georgia maloney, because in marine le pen group, her group, there— marine le pen group, her group, there is— marine le pen group, her group, there isthe— marine le pen group, her group, there is the other italian hard right— there is the other italian hard right party, italian party. and this competition within a right in which giorgia _ competition within a right in which giorgia meloni, because of her role

as prime _ giorgia meloni, because of her role as prime minister, she has had to, i wouldn't _ as prime minister, she has had to, i wouldn't say — as prime minister, she has had to, i wouldn't say moderate, but at least try to _ wouldn't say moderate, but at least try to portray herself as more of an institutional figure. try to portray herself as more of an institutionalfigure. she try to portray herself as more of an institutional figure. she has basically been receiving the competition from the rights by her opposition, in cohorts with marine le peh~ _ opposition, in cohorts with marine le pen. . , ., ., ., .,, le pen. fabrizio pagani, i was lookin: le pen. fabrizio pagani, i was looking at— le pen. fabrizio pagani, i was looking at the _ le pen. fabrizio pagani, i was looking at the age _ le pen. fabrizio pagani, i was looking at the age and - le pen. fabrizio pagani, i wasi looking at the age and publish problem in italy and it is stark. years ago, there was one person over 65 for every child aged six or under, and now the ratio is five to one. so it's really needs migration. it seems that they do not want the kind of migration that they have. i kind of migration that they have. i would make a distinction between irregular— would make a distinction between irregular migration— would make a distinction between irregular migration and _ would make a distinction between irregular migration and those - would make a distinction between irregular migration and those are i irregular migration and those are coming _ irregular migration and those are coming into— irregular migration and those are coming into the _ irregular migration and those are coming into the country- irregular migration and those are coming into the country with - irregular migration and those are coming into the country with a i irregular migration and those are . coming into the country with a work permit _ coming into the country with a work permit in— coming into the country with a work permit in that— coming into the country with a work permit. in that sense, _ coming into the country with a work permit. in that sense, i— coming into the country with a work permit. in that sense, ithink- coming into the country with a work permit. in that sense, i think the i permit. in that sense, i think the policy— permit. in that sense, i think the policy of— permit. in that sense, i think the policy of this _ permit. in that sense, i think the policy of this government - permit. in that sense, i think the policy of this government has - permit. in that sense, i think the l policy of this government has been quite _ policy of this government has been quite different— policy of this government has been quite different because _ policy of this government has been

quite different because their- quite different because their rhetoric— quite different because their rhetoric in _ quite different because their rhetoric in all— quite different because their rhetoric in all the _ quite different because their rhetoric in all the public - quite different because their- rhetoric in all the public discourse has been — rhetoric in all the public discourse has been very— rhetoric in all the public discourse has been very harsh _ rhetoric in all the public discourse has been very harsh against - has been very harsh against irregular— has been very harsh against irregular migration, - has been very harsh against irregular migration, but- has been very harsh against irregular migration, but in. has been very harsh against - irregular migration, but in terms of regular— irregular migration, but in terms of regular migration, _ irregular migration, but in terms of regular migration, and _ irregular migration, but in terms of regular migration, and opening - irregular migration, but in terms of regular migration, and opening upl irregular migration, but in terms of. regular migration, and opening up to the regular— regular migration, and opening up to the regular flows, _ regular migration, and opening up to the regular flows, this _ regular migration, and opening up to the regular flows, this government. the regular flows, this government has been _ the regular flows, this government has been quite _ the regular flows, this government has been quite generous, - the regular flows, this governmentl has been quite generous, definitely more _ has been quite generous, definitely more generous— has been quite generous, definitely more generous than _ has been quite generous, definitely more generous than previous - more generous than previous governments _ more generous than previous governments. there - more generous than previous governments. there are - more generous than previous . governments. there are around 500,000 — governments. there are around 500,000 people _ governments. there are around 500,000 people who _ governments. there are around 500,000 people who would - governments. there are around 500,000 people who would be| governments. there are around i 500,000 people who would be let governments. there are around - 500,000 people who would be let into the country— 500,000 people who would be let into the country in — 500,000 people who would be let into the country in the _ 500,000 people who would be let into the country in the next _ 500,000 people who would be let into the country in the next three _ 500,000 people who would be let into the country in the next three years, . the country in the next three years, which _ the country in the next three years, which is _ the country in the next three years, which is definitely _ the country in the next three years, which is definitely much _ the country in the next three years, which is definitely much more - the country in the next three years, which is definitely much more thanl which is definitely much more than it was— which is definitely much more than it was with — which is definitely much more than it was with previous _ which is definitely much more than it was with previous governments, | it was with previous governments, includinq _ it was with previous governments, including left—wing _ it was with previous governments, including left—wing governments. i including left—wing governments. that is— including left—wing governments. that is familiar, _ including left—wing governments. that is familiar, because - including left—wing governments. that is familiar, because we - including left—wing governments. that is familiar, because we a - that is familiar, because we a problem with net migration in this country, well above where the conservative party would like it to be, not well publicised, they don't talk about it, it's almost as if illegal migration is the cover for what is going on behind the scenes. giorgia meloni, when she was running to become prime minister, before the elections in october 2022, she advocated a naval blockade of libya,

and was taken a much harder line on migration and she has in office. she is still quite hard on this issue, and she has, for example, it struck and she has, for example, it struck a deal with albania that italy will build a couple of migration reception centres to take i sent them seekers trying to get to italy, and then they will be processed in albania under italian law and if they get asylum, there will be up to come quickly. that has drawn the ire of human rights groups but interestingly, she was backed by figures such as ursula von der leyen, as another approach migration. giorgia meloni and it was alluded to earlier, she, started off in politics in the post—fsh youth movement —— in the second world war

that was allowed to rebuild, the fascist party, but she is now, even we used to call her far right, to some extent, there are parts of the us republican party and the british conservative party might that are much further to the right than her, and as nathalie tocci alluded to, her opposition is farther to the right, so she rejects the label far right, so she rejects the label far right, and would call yourself a right—wing national conservative party, and that is more the kind of politics we get from her in office. i talked about in realignments fabrizio pagani, and to the extent that ursula von der leyen when question last week about the said she would work with some of the hard right groups, i guess it's political pragmatism because the winds are blown in that direction, aren't they? blown in that direction, aren't the ? ~ , they? we will see, with the elections — they? we will see, with the elections in _ they? we will see, with the elections in three _ they? we will see, with the elections in three weeks. . they? we will see, with the l elections in three weeks. the european _ elections in three weeks. the european parliament- elections in three weeks. the european parliament has- elections in three weeks. the| european parliament has only elections in three weeks. the - european parliament has only been dominated — european parliament has only been dominated by— european parliament has only been dominated by two _ european parliament has only been dominated by two groups, - european parliament has only been dominated by two groups, the -

dominated by two groups, the christian— dominated by two groups, the christian democrats, - dominated by two groups, the christian democrats, the - dominated by two groups, the i christian democrats, the popular party, _ christian democrats, the popular party, and — christian democrats, the popular party. and the _ christian democrats, the popular party, and the social— christian democrats, the popular party, and the social —— - christian democrats, the popular party, and the social —— the - party, and the social —— the socialist, _ party, and the social —— the socialist, this _ party, and the social —— the socialist, this time - party, and the social —— the socialist, this time needs . party, and the social —— the i socialist, this time needs are different. _ socialist, this time needs are different, though _ socialist, this time needs are different, though it's- socialist, this time needs are different, though it's not- socialist, this time needs are i different, though it's not easy socialist, this time needs are . different, though it's not easy to change _ different, though it's not easy to change that— different, though it's not easy to change that dynamic, _ different, though it's not easy to change that dynamic, which - different, though it's not easy to change that dynamic, which is. change that dynamic, which is lonq-standinq _ change that dynamic, which is long—standing in— change that dynamic, which is long—standing in the - change that dynamic, which is long—standing in the practicel change that dynamic, which is. long—standing in the practice of change that dynamic, which is- long—standing in the practice of the european _ long—standing in the practice of the european parliament, _ long—standing in the practice of the european parliament, but- long—standing in the practice of the european parliament, but perhapsl long—standing in the practice of the i european parliament, but perhaps the new commission — european parliament, but perhaps the new commission will— european parliament, but perhaps the new commission will have _ european parliament, but perhaps the new commission will have the - european parliament, but perhaps the new commission will have the vote - new commission will have the vote also of— new commission will have the vote also of the — new commission will have the vote also of the ecr, _ new commission will have the vote also of the ecr, the _ also of the ecr, the conservative party— also of the ecr, the conservative party to — also of the ecr, the conservative party to which _ also of the ecr, the conservative party to which giorgia _ also of the ecr, the conservative party to which giorgia meloni - party to which giorgia meloni belonqs _ party to which giorgia meloni belongs to— party to which giorgia meloni belongs to a _ party to which giorgia meloni belongs to a stop _ party to which giorgia meloni belongs to a stop we - party to which giorgia meloni belongs to a stop we will - party to which giorgia meloni i belongs to a stop we will see, party to which giorgia meloni - belongs to a stop we will see, there may be _ belongs to a stop we will see, there may be some — belongs to a stop we will see, there may be some change _ belongs to a stop we will see, there may be some change in _ belongs to a stop we will see, there may be some change in the - belongs to a stop we will see, there | may be some change in the majority and the _ may be some change in the majority and the support— may be some change in the majority and the support of— may be some change in the majority and the support of european- and the support of european commission— and the support of european commission collation. - and the support of european commission collation. nathalie tocci, commission collation. nathalie tocci. l'm _ commission collation. nathalie tocci, i'm struck, _ commission collation. nathalie tocci, i'm struck, we _ commission collation. nathalie tocci, i'm struck, we are - commission collation. nathalie tocci, i'm struck, we are into l commission collation. nathalie l tocci, i'm struck, we are into our fourth country but we are not questioning whether the hard right will finish at the polls, we are talking about what the european parliament will look like when they win in some of the countries. what are the dangers for the european union and the european electorate of

the parliament having a sizeable hard right presence?— the parliament having a sizeable hard right presence? firstly, let me sa that i hard right presence? firstly, let me say that i think— hard right presence? firstly, let me say that i think it _ hard right presence? firstly, let me say that i think it studies _ say that i think it studies contribution to this far right tells is actually minimal, and i will explain. we are comparing to the existing european parliament elected backin existing european parliament elected back in 2019. in existing european parliament elected back in 2019. ., existing european parliament elected back in 20153-— back in 2019. in that european parliament — back in 2019. in that european parliament election, _ back in 2019. in that european parliament election, the - back in 2019. in that european i parliament election, the league, which _ parliament election, the league, which we — parliament election, the league, which we said is the right of giorqia _ which we said is the right of giorgia meloni about one, if my memory— giorgia meloni about one, if my memory serves me right, 34%. giorgia meloni _ memory serves me right, 34%. giorgia meloni will— memory serves me right, 34%. giorgia meloni will be lucky if she gets to 30, so _ meloni will be lucky if she gets to 30, so what we're seeing in of italy's— 30, so what we're seeing in of italy's contribution enough pyrite tilt, is— italy's contribution enough pyrite tilt, is a — italy's contribution enough pyrite tilt, is a reorganisation, a vote within— tilt, is a reorganisation, a vote within the _ tilt, is a reorganisation, a vote within the right. excuse me. one has to moderate —

within the right. excuse me. one has to moderate what is italy impact on all of— to moderate what is italy impact on all of this — to moderate what is italy impact on all of this. in terms of the policy implications, in a sense, we have already— implications, in a sense, we have already seen this, we have already started _ already seen this, we have already started seeing how ursula von der leyen— started seeing how ursula von der leyen is— started seeing how ursula von der leyen is trying to rule votes for the right, _ leyen is trying to rule votes for the right,, she has been going toqether— the right,, she has been going together with giorgia meloni to tunisia. — together with giorgia meloni to tunisia, to egypt, signing these somewhat dubious deals with some of these north african countries. there are number— these north african countries. there are number of countries, actually this week, — are number of countries, actually this week, denmark, the czech republic, — this week, denmark, the czech republic, who wrote a x pressing interest— republic, who wrote a x pressing interest in— republic, who wrote a x pressing interest in the kind of deal that italy— interest in the kind of deal that italy signed with albania, so you see the — italy signed with albania, so you see the way in which it is already having _ see the way in which it is already having now— see the way in which it is already having now with before the european parliament _ having now with before the european parliament election on migration. and we've — parliament election on migration. and we've already started seeing the rolling _ and we've already started seeing the rolling back on climate policy. all this happening before the elections.

will come _ this happening before the elections. will come to climate policy, it's interesting because the conservative government said the other week that once they got the rwanda plan through other countries would look at it, and indeed it sees seemingly the case, with other countries talking about third countries. we'll take a break. coming up, we will take a look at some of the other big issue facing italy. we all remember the debt crisis of 2008. and the risks are still there. has giorgia meloni postponed the financial pain for electoral gain?

so as discussed, the italian prime minister, giorgia meloni intends to to use her personal popularity next month, to boost her party's chances in this european vote. and if the polls are right then the post—fascist brothers of italy will take 27% of the vote. back in 2009, the late silvio berlusconi did something similar, running as his party's lead candidate in the eu elections, and then staying on as head of the italian government after his party finished first. matteo renzi did the same

thing five years later. so this is not a new tactic. but it does reflect how much importance the italians attach to this vote, and to the debate that is forming in europe around deficits, spending, migration and climate. 0ur reporter sofia bettiza explains. for italy's prime minister, giorgia meloni, the european elections injune will be a key test of her strength. so what's her strategy? well, to understand what she's thinking, let's have a look at this speech from the 28th of april when she announced she was running and outlined her vision for europe. translation: we want to create a majority that brings together i centre right forces and send the left into opposition in the eu. it is difficult, but it's possible. her goal is to hold the key to creating a grand centre right coalition between the ecr, which is the political group that she belongs to, and the european people's party, the largest group in brussels.

so essentially, bringing together centre right forces in the european parliament. now her decision to personally run is unusual in the eu. apart from the croatian prime minister, no other european leader is a candidate in the european elections, and analysts say that this is all part of a strategy. she wants to capitalise on her popularity to maximise support for her party at european level. so what would that mean for the eu? well, giorgia meloni is already an inspiration to the european far right. it was pressure from meloni that compelled brussels to scale back its climate package, and it was also because of meloni that europe changed the way that it deals with migration. now, most italians will remember that not so long ago, her party used to call for italy

to leave the eurozone. giorgia meloni said things like "the euro is a flawed currency destined to implode". but now, rather than disrupt the eu, giorgia meloni seems keen to run it and to put her stamp on it. and this is unusual. it's rare that an italian prime minister is playing such a key role in europe. normally, it's leaders from germany, france, and until recently the uk that held the most power. but next month, giorgia meloni's influence in brussels, together with other far right populist parties, seems only set to get bigger. interesting. these parties that were committed to leading the european union, they don't want to get off the bus, they want to drive it,

maybe the lesson from brexit, but i want to focus on some of the domestic policy because it informs what giorgia meloni wanted us to do in the next european parliament might particularly in tax and spending. she has postponed spending before, until 2026, which could start some trouble because if you look at the budget deficit, it is just over 7% of gdp, well above the european target. just over 7% of gdp, well above the european target-— european target. absolutely, althou . h european target. absolutely, although there _ european target. absolutely, although there are _ european target. absolutely, although there are some - european target. absolutely, - although there are some one-off although there are some one—off which _ although there are some one—off which may— although there are some one—off which may not— although there are some one—off which may not be _ although there are some one—off which may not be occurring - although there are some one—off which may not be occurring in . although there are some one—offl which may not be occurring in the next _ which may not be occurring in the next years — which may not be occurring in the next years i_ which may not be occurring in the next years. ithink— which may not be occurring in the next years. i think crunch - which may not be occurring in the next years. i think crunch time i which may not be occurring in thel next years. i think crunch time has not yet _ next years. i think crunch time has not yet come — next years. i think crunch time has not yet come for _ next years. i think crunch time has not yet come for this _ next years. i think crunch time has not yet come for this governmentl next years. i think crunch time has. not yet come for this government in terms _ not yet come for this government in terms of— not yet come for this government in terms of fiscal— not yet come for this government in terms of fiscal policy, _ not yet come for this government in terms of fiscal policy, it _ not yet come for this government in terms of fiscal policy, it would - not yet come for this government in terms of fiscal policy, it would be i terms of fiscal policy, it would be in the _ terms of fiscal policy, it would be in the next — terms of fiscal policy, it would be in the next year _ terms of fiscal policy, it would be in the next year budget, - terms of fiscal policy, it would be in the next year budget, which i terms of fiscal policy, it would be i in the next year budget, which will show— in the next year budget, which will show the _ in the next year budget, which will show the real— in the next year budget, which will show the real problems _ in the next year budget, which will show the real problems of - in the next year budget, which will show the real problems of the - show the real problems of the government— show the real problems of the government in— show the real problems of the government in that _ show the real problems of the government in that sense. - show the real problems of the j government in that sense. for show the real problems of the l government in that sense. for a number— government in that sense. for a number of— government in that sense. for a number of reasons, _ government in that sense. for a number of reasons, starting - government in that sense. for ai number of reasons, starting with government in that sense. for a - number of reasons, starting with the fact that _ number of reasons, starting with the fact that the — number of reasons, starting with the fact that the new— number of reasons, starting with the fact that the new fiscal _ number of reasons, starting with the fact that the new fiscal rules, - number of reasons, starting with the fact that the new fiscal rules, the - fact that the new fiscal rules, the european — fact that the new fiscal rules, the european never— fact that the new fiscal rules, the european never will— fact that the new fiscal rules, the european never will enter- fact that the new fiscal rules, the european never will enter into i fact that the new fiscal rules, the . european never will enter into force

and need _ european never will enter into force and need to— european never will enter into force and need to be _ european never will enter into force and need to be respected. - european never will enter into forcel and need to be respected. whatever the adjustment. _ and need to be respected. whatever the adjustment, which _ and need to be respected. whatever the adjustment, which will - and need to be respected. whatever the adjustment, which will be - the adjustment, which will be accorded _ the adjustment, which will be accorded to— the adjustment, which will be accorded to different - the adjustment, which will be . accorded to different calculations around _ accorded to different calculations around 06— accorded to different calculations around 06 or— accorded to different calculations around 0.6 or 0.7 _ accorded to different calculations around 0.6 or 0.7 of— accorded to different calculations around 0.6 or 0.7 of gdp - accorded to different calculations around 0.6 or 0.7 of gdp per- accorded to different calculations . around 0.6 or 0.7 of gdp per year, which— around 0.6 or 0.7 of gdp per year, which already— around 0.6 or 0.7 of gdp per year, which already equals _ around 0.6 or 0.7 of gdp per year, which already equals to _ which already equals to 12-14,000,000,000 . which already equals to - 12-14,000,000,000 going which already equals to - 12—14,000,000,000 going on which already equals to _ 12—14,000,000,000 going on per year, which _ 12—14,000,000,000 going on per year, which is _ 12—14,000,000,000 going on per year, which is doable _ 12—14,000,000,000 going on per year, which is doable but _ 12—14,000,000,000 going on per year, which is doable but a _ 12—14,000,000,000 going on per year, which is doable but a challenge. - which is doable but a challenge. nathalie — which is doable but a challenge. nathalie tocci, _ which is doable but a challenge. nathalie tocci, interest - which is doable but a challenge. nathalie tocci, interest rates i which is doable but a challenge. i nathalie tocci, interest rates are still high, so it's expensive to borrow at the moment, i was looking at ten year bonds, the deal is lower thanit at ten year bonds, the deal is lower than it was, so out of the danger zone they were in last year, but still very vulnerable to external shocks, and the european union will play tough on it will stop what does giorgia meloni hope to get from the commission when it comes to spending targets? it commission when it comes to spending taraets? .., . , commission when it comes to spending taraets? . , ., commission when it comes to spending taruets? . , ., , targets? it connects to the broader conversation _ targets? it connects to the broader conversation where _ targets? it connects to the broader conversation where having, - targets? it connects to the broader conversation where having, so - targets? it connects to the broader conversation where having, so far. targets? it connects to the broader. conversation where having, so far we have seen _ conversation where having, so far we have seen giorgia meloni, for various— have seen giorgia meloni, for various reasons that have to do with the fact— various reasons that have to do with the fact that there is joe

various reasons that have to do with the fact that there isjoe biden in the fact that there isjoe biden in the white — the fact that there isjoe biden in the white house, they have been receiving — the white house, they have been receiving a — the white house, they have been receiving a lot of money from the european — receiving a lot of money from the european union and for next—generation you, the fact that the budget falls up onto the end of last year— the budget falls up onto the end of last year had at been suspended, i know— last year had at been suspended, i know we _ last year had at been suspended, i know we see there's this window in which the _ know we see there's this window in which the spending can continue, however— which the spending can continue, however these —— all of the circumstances that submit that giorqia — circumstances that submit that giorgia meloni, up until now, has been _ giorgia meloni, up until now, has been behaving relatively well, and people _ been behaving relatively well, and people are saying the ambition is to try to _ people are saying the ambition is to try to change the eu from within on a number— try to change the eu from within on a number of— try to change the eu from within on a number of issues, migration climates— a number of issues, migration climates and so on. however, what happens _ climates and so on. however, what happens if— climates and so on. however, what happens if those circumstances change? — happens if those circumstances change? it at some point, as fabrizio _ change? it at some point, as fabrizio pagani said, push comes to shove _ fabrizio pagani said, push comes to shove when— fabrizio pagani said, push comes to shove when it comes to the economy. at some _ shove when it comes to the economy. at some point, the fact that the irregular— at some point, the fact that the irregular migration numbers will continue — irregular migration numbers will continue going up, at some point she would _ continue going up, at some point she would have _ continue going up, at some point she would have to be held accountable

for that _ would have to be held accountable for that visa visa her electorate, and what — for that visa visa her electorate, and what happens if donald trump returned _ and what happens if donald trump returned to the white house? so you can be _ returned to the white house? so you can be a _ returned to the white house? so you can be a good transatlantic and show your deeply— can be a good transatlantic and show your deeply you're sceptic, much like donald trump himself is. i'm not necessarily arguing she was lower— not necessarily arguing she was lower her— not necessarily arguing she was lower her mask and returned to her true self. _ lower her mask and returned to her true self, but i think it is a likelihood, so i would not at all be certain _ likelihood, so i would not at all be certain that — likelihood, so i would not at all be certain that the moderation that we have seen— certain that the moderation that we have seen over the last year and a half he _ have seen over the last year and a half he stay— have seen over the last year and a half he stay in the years to come. mark, _ half he stay in the years to come. mark, does— half he stay in the years to come. mark, does that tie back to what we were discussing in regards to the workforce, because when you look at wages, there is no set minimum wage in italy, and looking at average wages regarding other european wages, they are lower, and i wonder if it's part of the parliament in italy, is a branching, talented younger people look for higher wages outside of italy. it’s

younger people look for higher wages outside of italy.— outside of italy. it's a huge problem. _ outside of italy. it's a huge problem. an _ outside of italy. it's a huge problem, an estimated - outside of italy. it's a huge | problem, an estimated half outside of italy. it's a huge i problem, an estimated half a outside of italy. it's a huge - problem, an estimated half a million italians have left the country since the debt crisis in 2011, but interestingly, italy has the second lowest number of 25 to 64 euros in the eu with a university degree, just ahead of romania. so you have talented minds leaving the country, but also italians not finishing their degree and not wanted to join their degree and not wanted to join the workforce so often because the salary solo. so there are these chronic columns and added to that are things like, for example, the massive demographic decline, that the publishing has dropped below 59 million, the lowest number of births since 1861, so is well below the numbers needed to replenish the operation, so these are the chronic problems. one point to add to what we're saying, i think giorgia meloni

is an interesting character because we talk about her post—fascist groups and hydrate ground, but she's also the only leader in the european union i can think of who can sit on a table and have one hand towards emmanuel macron and 0laf scholz, and another towards viktor 0rban in hungary because of that right wing, was hard right roots, so she is needed by western european governments as that go—between, and also, critically, she has been very pro—ukraine and anti—russia in the ukraine war, so that's why she's also needed and respected by people like joe also needed and respected by people likejoe biden and rishi sunak, so there has been a real place for her, she's in a niche that she is still in the european union and she's plaintiff that. it’s in the european union and she's plaintiff that-— plaintiff that. it's been an interesting _ plaintiff that. it's been an interesting discussion - plaintiff that. it's been an interesting discussion on| plaintiff that. it's been an - interesting discussion on that we have not got to climate change, which is interesting, but we will

talk about it next week because were off to germany, just enough time to say think it's a mark and nathalie tocci and fabrizio pagani for your contributions, and in 21, the green party in germany answered with the best election results in history, notice of stall, we look at why next week. hello there. despite some cloud across northern areas, especially across scotland, much of the country had a pretty decent day today with a good deal of sunshine around. it felt quite warm through the afternoon. that's how we're keeping things for the rest of this week. always a bit more cloud across this northwest corner with some rain at times, particularly the north and west of scotland. by far, the bulk of the dry, sunny weather will be across england and wales. there may be the odd isolated shower here and there, but most places will stay dry. in fact, a pretty good looking week coming up all in all, thanks to high pressure which has been building in, killing off the showers, pushing away the weather fronts. it's left a legacy of cloud, though, and that's what we're going to see

again across parts of the north of the uk and also some sea fog, some mist and murk here and there across north sea coasts in towards the irish sea as well, but generally dry for most with a few clear spells. temperatures 6—20 celsius. high pressure then dominates the scenes, gets a bit stronger across the country, so i think we'll see fewer showers for england and wales. but these weather fronts will bring thicker cloud, more of a breeze. outbreaks of rain to the northwest of the country, most places starting dry, a bit of mist and murk to start off with plenty of sunshine, england and wales, southern and eastern scotland, northern ireland. then we'll start to see splashes of rain with increasing breeze across the north and west of scotland into the afternoon. so, 13—14 degrees here, up to 20 for southern scotland, 21 or 22 in the warmest spots in england and wales, and winds generally light coming in from the south. wednesday night, most places dry again with clear spells, variable cloud. stays quite cloudy, breezy with outbreaks of rain across the northern half of scotland through the night and temperatures again six to around ten degrees. so, for thursday, then i think we'll see more sunshine around across england and wales.

bit of a cloudy start, then the sunshine really gets going and i don't think there'll be any issues with the showers whatsoever — should stay completely dry. a bit more cloud for northern scotland. the odd shower here, but southern scotland, northern ireland doing pretty well. temperatures 19 or 20 degrees here, 22 or 23, the warmest spots across england and wales. high pressure continues to bring fine weather on friday and into the weekend as well, but it starts to retreat towards the continent and allows low pressure to take over initially from the west as we head through the latter part of sunday. so it could be quite warm friday and certainly into the weekend across the south of the country. by the end of sunday, we start to see a few showers, i think, pushing into western areas. take care.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. they have no case. every single legal scholar that isee, i mean, maybe there's somebody out there, some whackjob. but the for virtually every...everyone, everyone that i've seen has said that absolutely no case. it's a case that shouldn't have been brought. the woman who donald trump $130,000 to keep quiet has been speaking out in great detail in court. she says that she decided to do that not because of money, _ but she thought it was a win—win. she could get paid and securel the safety of her family byjust

getting the story out. joining me tonight on the panel journalist and author rachel shabi and julio ricardo varela the president of futuro media. we will get to our panel shortly. first the latest bbc news. stormy daniels, the adult film star at the centre of donald trump's criminal trial in new york is giving testimony about their alleged sexual encounter in 2006. the prosecution argue that since she was paid right before the 2016 election, that constituted a campaign finance crime. donald trump says there is no case. the intelligence service in ukraine say they have uncovered a russian plot to assassinate president volodymyr zelensky. two colonels from the governments protection unit suspected of passing on secret information to the russian fsb have been arrested.

the white house says it is still hopeful israel and hamas