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the deals on top before they're current job today donald trump is just perhaps one social post away from potential jail time as is his trial enters a very critical week. welcome to a special edition alarm codes live hours from now, donald trump will enter a de 13 of his criminal trial. and the big question everyone's asking tonight, are we going to hear from stormy daniels or michael cohen? and if so, when are they going to take the stand now according to prosecutors, we are now halfway through their case in chief. i made that sound far more exciting. i didn't perhaps to you, but we just have about two more weeks left. and yes, there will be a very key moment. and by key moment, i mean messy to have daniel's and adult film star testify about an alleged sex scandal that prosecutors say

she was paid to keep quiet so that it wouldn't hurt trump's 2016 campaign. but forgive the broken get to record that i'm about to sound like, but that's not what the heart of the case is really about. >> okay. >> it's not a trial to prove whether he had an affair or a sexual encounter. the case is about the falsification of business records to cover up the crime of potentially trying to shield the transparency for campaign finance reasons. that's why i've anything you could argue that today's testimony actually featured a real star witness. in fact, two of them, or maybe 34 potentially of them. the physical paper evidence. now whether the paper will be enough to convict that's a matter for the jury. what it was introduced by way of two different witnesses. one was jeffrey cima the former trump organization controller, another person, deborah tarasoff and accounts payable supervisor at the trump organization. and by the way, she's still works there. now, if you think here's how are

these people going to be as exciting as michael co ones where may daniel's, it's a paper and documents case and i want to focus on two key pieces. >> the first is this bank statement showing that michael cohen page stormy 130,000 bucks in the so-called hush money. >> there are handwritten notes at the bottom by trump's former money man, alan yslow berg. now those notes, they actually calculate how much cohen should be repaid the tune of 420,000 bucks. now mccartney, he testified that in 2017 why isil berg told him to start repaying cohen anywhere is own calculations that you see here as my son knows, and school show me the math. so let's break it down for a second. how do you get to $420,000? well, there's the original hundred and $3,000 payment that cohen made to stormy. >> then they added about $50,000 for a tech services company that helped with the poles as it firm that gets you to do the math? >> uh, hundred and 80,000. they then double that amount to

account for taxes that will get taken out so you can take home the full amount that he actually wanted. that means $360,000 and then they gave cohen a $60,000 bonus grand total $420,000. they then divided that into 12 monthly payments of $35,000. and that's where the checks come in, the sharpie pen signed checks, checks that were signed by trump for 35 grand to michael cohen. >> now, deborah tarasoff testified that trump signed nine of the reimbursement checks from the transcript regarding one of those checks here was a question that was asked who is going to be paid mecole cohen. >> and what amount $35,000. what is the ledger description distribution? >> legal expense. now, that is the heart of the case. >> the prosecution is trying to make that trump disguise these payments as legitimate legal expenses to cover up the

payments of 35,000 to repay him for what happened when stormy or at least the allegations, the silencer. but to be clear, you didn't hear from either witness directly testifying to trumps knowledge tarasoff said that she never actually saw a trump sign the checks when you've got the white house, remember, all of these happened after the inauguration and mcconney testified he was never actually told that trump instructed any of these payments this is where the plot thickens for the burden of proof i want to write to caitlin poem lands and your at cnn senior crime just going to court reporter, excuse me jane rasa, former federal prosecutor, tim predatory, former jump attorney eleia williams. he didn't leak landless and molly ball, your political correspondent for the wall street journal. so again, it's a document's case and dr. can be sexy elliot uncertainty for a second. so you've got there. there was no question there to tarasoff, and jeffrey mcconney they testified about the foreign $20,000, but

breakdown for us about what that was showing to the jury that they did some math. yeah, they arithmetic. is there. >> how does that translate? >> thanks. number one, that the structuring of the payments and $35,000, then we see it here. might look suspicious on its face and the i think the biggest concern for all parties involved came on cross-examination where they asked jeffrey mcconney directly did you hear donald trump direct these payments and forgive me, i'm paraphrasing a little bit and he said no. and then they said no further questions, your honore, because a big part of the defense's case, as arguing and they said in their opening statement, they're going to say it and they're closing them to keep hammering this point but there's no direct link between donald trump and the provision of the payments. now, you can establish that someone knew that payments were being made by having every employee& is organization say yeah, it's a small business and he knows what's happening and you can establish that everybody knew

what he wanted. but you don't have direct evidence linking it lithium to it. and i think that's going to be the prosecutors big challenge. and i think will drive the next several days testimony. >> it's a huge achilles heel, right? i mean, you you kinda wanna have the did you order the code red moment? i was going i was going to get a few good what limit reference in your somehow some way during the trial. but if you take the stand, maybe you can get that. but without that you left to have the no the inference is happening. you've got a nice place here. >> that's all it seems to establish so far. well, here's the thing circumstantial evidence is. justice powerful as direct evidence. and you're going to get a jury instruction on that. eliot's right right now. we don't have that link. it's too attenuated. we need a from the invoice to the a scheme that started in august of 2015, but i got to say this elliott mentioned that the structuring looks a little bit suspicious. i think it looks a lot suspicious. okay and the

reason is this, if you look at footnote 11 the southern district of new york's sentencing memo and the michael cohen case. the fec in 2013 slap the wrist of trump and cohen because colin was making payments, because trump was thinking about running for president in 2011, the whole birth or thing. >> he was it's thinking about running against romney. so they were on notice. and if it doesn't come out, michael cohen's testimony that they were slapped in 2013 then ne of committee malpractice. the reason i bring that up is trump knows what in-kind contribution is. trump knows that if he is having a payment right before the election, he has to conceal that payment. now, here's where the rubber meets the road. if y so bergen cohen were in their own room coming up with this souffle. the, uh, hundred and 30,004, 20 i call it the

souffle all right. >> if they did it on their own without telling trump, he's gonna get acquitted because there's no connection, no willfulness in the invoice so donald trump today had a good day i don't know if i would do the fist pump, but he had a good day in the sense that they have an argument in closing right now, they can say something to the jury that is believable. >> so first of all, how dare you mentioned souffles at this hour, we're all hungry and now we have a midnight snack happening, but tim, i'm asking about this question. there was a moment here where the checks reimburse cohen were signed by trump tarasoff did testify a bys here's what she said. here's the question. >> if he didn't want to sign it talking about the checks, if you don't want to sign it, he didn't sign it did you ever see situations where he didn't sign checks? >> she said, yes what would happen in those situations? he would write void on it and send it back. question, how do you know he would write void on it?

answer it was signed in a sharpie and black. that is what he usually does. so there was some connection that he would sign allege reimbursement checks how damaging was that connection? obviously, it's a bit tenuous. there's the white house versus what was happening at trump organization. but the fact that his i mean, he's a somebody who was meticulous about what was being spent. it's in a sharpie, it's not like it's a rubber stamp. it's use. is that harmful to his i don't think it's that harmful because what are the circumstances under which he avoids these checks? it's probably somebody that he has a specific disagreement with and he says, i don't want to pay this person and so if he has invoices from michael cohen, let's say legal fees, he then gets checks from from the staff saying, hey, sign this for michael cohen and he doesn't have a specific before he says, yeah, i want to screw this guy out of his what he's owed. then he's going to sign the checks. i don't think it's not as much of a bombshell the fact that he signed those checks, the key here would be

exactly what jim was just saying. is to be able to tie him in to all those calculations. and so if all you can connect him to is the checks and maybe the invoice where it says the total for legal fees. then yeah, he probably is going to get acquitted on that. i think that why is really the key to this whole thing. >> and be interesting to see if he comes into testified what he's going to say about this, because cohen going on colin's word alone. i don't think there's quite enough. >> well, you know, iceberg is currently in jail and kaitlan, as you know, and there has been no indication he will be either a cooperator or cooperative with the prosecution. these cases it's not necessarily required that he has to come in with bells on his toes but this why i think they had conway and it was his last name again mcconney. coming in to talk about this very issue, but walk us through the ledgers in the invoices. they each show these

$35,000 payment to cohen what did we learn from the paper trail that we actually do see? >> yeah. so when we don't expect why sobeh testified that was well-established coming into this trial. >> but you can come in if you're in jail, they can bring you in him. they think they want. there could always be a surprise, but if we look at what last week was in this trial, the circumstantial evidence that kept coming out and they kept hammering was everything related to the campaign, the motivations this week, when you're seeing the week start with these two people from the trump organization who might not have been privy to the scheme work directly in donald in touch with donald trump about talking about these payments they are the people that are showing over and over again, donald trump controls the money and the way they showed that is they're presenting evidence, they're getting evidenced in so it's not just people from the da's office bringing in all the crucial evidence on record here. it's the people

from trump borge, the two pieces. first, there were a whole slew of emails from michael cohen being sent to jeff mcconney at the trump org saying, did you get my invoice, pay my invoice, pay my invoice every month for that $35,000. and in one of them mccartney wrote back to him, i'll check the status tomorrow. bjt, donald j. trump needs to sign the checks, so that highlights trump's involvement and then you're seeing ledgers even before we get to the checks themselves that the subsequent witness brought into the record, geoff mcconney was able to show to the jury and it'd be lawyers looking at this scrutinizing it, professionals on this during looking at it, when they go to deliberate, these invoices to michael cohen are in two parts. there are ones that are paid out of the dj at rev, which is the donald j. trump or vocal able trust, just signed off on by the sun's alan weisberg and then there are nine payments,

$315,000 coming out of a personal account of donald trump this is so important because many people know and obviously the jury is familiar with donald trump probably as this celebrity, as the apprentice& as somebody whose reputation his name is on the building. >> whether it's been as his father, otherwise, mali he capitalised for so many years on people believing that he was the person in control. but it was the buck stops there. he controls everything and we heard from testimony and kaitlan like me about really it run kind of as a mom and pop as jim acosta said earlier, i'd say more pop and mom the fact that you've got this playing out, how does that play? you think politically and for this jury, that they assume that he was running the show well, i think politically and for the jury, it is it's a similar big picture question and it is about the intent. and so the jury is having to hear all of this very dry minutiae about documents, not the documents

aren't sexy. certainly not saying that you know, you're right. this is a, this is a case about falsification you should have business records today, we saw the business records that was a big reveal however, what this case is going to hinge on, and the reason the subject of most of the debate about the case outside of the courtroom has been about more about the abstract legal issues involved is that we are not learning a huge amount of new information through the testimony of these witnesses. we have known for years here's the broad strokes of these scandals we've known what these witnesses mostly had to say, especially the bigger name witnesses who've been out there saying their case against trump for years, particularly michael cohen and stormy daniels so it's not that there are factual revelations. it's much more about building a narrative around to different ideas of why it was done, right so that is why i think a lot of the political debate around this case has been about the framing of it. and is this a crime? should this be a crime? does it rise to the level of a felony was did it have to do with the campaign? all of that

stuff around the intentionality of it. i think is politically crucial because to the extent that voters are following this that's what matters to them. and also i think that's ultimately what the jury is going to be called upon to decide. not so much, what are the facts here, but how do they interpret those facts? >> the framing is going to be very important. we all know how this is going to be part of the summation that's important to consider. how this will all be summarized for the jury when closing arguments do begin, because every little bit we're talking about, they're not have to have it come back together. and that jigsaw puzzle has got to be complete. thank you so much, everyone stick around next, judge martian threatening trump with jail time after holding him in contempt for violating his gag order yet again. but of course for glass. it ordered the penalty. >> so what could that actually look like? we've got to retire, judge, to tell us next to give your teeth a dentist clean feeling. start with a round brush head, add power, and you've got oral-b round cleans

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plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today. bertrand at the pentagon. >> and this is cnn tonight contingency plans are being drawn up in case donald j. >> trump goes to jail for violating the gag order for swelling scene and the secret service is working with me york state and local officials to maybe create some kind of a jail plan. one option assumes

that judge merchan might sentence him to just a few hours in custody time. you can serpentine the manhattan courthouse where the hush money trial is actually happening. but if he is sentenced to days in jail, he could be placed in the custody of the us marshals even sent to a nearby federal courthouse. were schein calls jail a last resort, but it's a real possibility after he put trump on notice and ruled that the former president violated the gag order. now for a tenth time, that means i a pop trunk has got to pay $10,000 total and fine lines. so after court trumps now like he was willing to go to jail so he can say whatever he wants judges give me that you'll go to jail if you violate that, frankly, a lot to do as much for the jail, studying and close i'll do that sacrifice any day as mike tyson

says, everyone has a plan to get punched in the face. not sure he wanted to do that, but with me now, retired california superior court judge, a doris cordill. thank you so much for joining us this evening, your honore, let me ask you you've obviously had been falling this very closely. i mean, the judge told trump your continued violations of this court's lawful order threatened to interfere with the administration of justice and constant attack was constitute a direct attack on the rule of law. now, my view of the prosecution is not asking for jail i'll time. would you jail him despite the prosecution i've been asking for it well, thank you for having me on before i even answer that. >> let me just say that, judge merchan is being very deliberate. he's also been cautious and that's where i differ with him. i do not understand why he's being so cautious now. and he did somebody said something in court. i wouldn't have said had i've been presiding over this he said to donald trump, you are really important person and it's really something if i have to lock you up and at the

same time as you just reported, he said, you, mr. important person are basically a threat to the rule of law. so those two things conflict in my view, if you you are not following orders. if you're breaking them ten times and in this instance, because of new york law, the fine does not fit the crime. the law needs to be changed to enhance that but that being said, there's nothing left to do the fines have been done. it's not a deterrence. he keeps doing this stuff. so it's enough already. another thing, if i were presiding over this case and saw a defendant do with donald trump does in court when the judge speaks about this directly to him, donald trump frowns. he shakes his head as if i don't want to hear this. any other judge, would look at this and say, you know what? that's enough time to go.

>> so he is disrupted affecting the judge when the judge is actually trying to explain why i'm not going down that road. and even donald trump is rejecting that. you've mentioned. well, yeah, there's a holding cell. it's not really a room where people sit in, defendants sit in. so yeah, that's not jail. there's house arrest that's not jail. >> so other people who violate the law by ignoring a judge's order with regard to contempt proceeding, they sit in a jail, they put on jail clothing. >> i hear handcuffed well, judge, i'm at point i had to tell you i have your right. i've sat in many a quorum is where the judge has had the equivalent of the mom fix your face to the defendant, who is smirking, are reacting in some way and there are consequences for that. but just to be clear for the audience, the additional violations the judge found predated the order for the initial $9,000 in fines, and then it said, look,

anything going past this moment in time, essentially, what could result in men incarceration but is it all or nothing? i mean, talk to me about the potential for a graduated jail sentence. there could be an hour during lunch, there could be after that day before. >> i mean, it does necessarily mean that he would have to serve the duration of the trial in contempt, right yeah. you're exactly right. if i were presiding over this trial and if i decided there were nut say there's another contempt violation and you're correct. these were all happened before the judge sit, you're going to go to jail. but the judge could do this if there's another violation and trust me there's gonna be another violation. it's coming. in which case i could impose jail and say, i'm going to stay the punishment, the jail sentence stayed, meaning hold off on it until the end of the trial. and as you we to misbehave, i'm going to consider adding more jail time till and the percocet your

honor. yeah. why for me, the sentence the purpose that you don't see the purpose of that would be not to disrupt the flow of the trial and he would have to just gone well, let me ask you what's that point and it would hang over trump's head. >> yeah. i absolutely i understand that let's take their philosophy. let me ask you though too quick points i wonder if you're concerned. we were talking about punishment given what trump has said is this truly going to be punishment or an opportunity for perhaps martyrdom? would you consider that point about jailing them? and the second part of course, is this judge has already said that p is not going to, if trump takes the stand, he is not going to allow the violations to go before the jury that they won't know that he has these contempt violations available because he thought luck. this is a jury that's in front of me every single day. they have respect for me, me having that particular moment when would be prejudicial, how would you rule all right, so first question was, is he'll be a martyr.

>> he's going to do whatever he does, no matter what the judge orders. but the issue becomes this. if you're a judge, it shouldn't matter. it must not matter what the mob is saying when you make a ruling, it's based on what happened since in your courtroom, the judge should not be concerned at all, you get judges who start making decisions. but first checking how it's going to be received out there. then we don't have an independent judiciary. your second question, what was your second point? >> would you consider when you're thinking about and i appreciate taking the time to answer both when you're looking at the decision to have a jury? know about the violations. if he takes the stand. >> right right. >> so the contempt is separate from the trial. so if donald trump were to testify, he would be instructed you, we're not going there. no one will ask you any questions about the gag order. however, because he cannot control his mouth, it is likely we were to testify. he would probably say something, well, this crooked, judge, has

gagged me, in which case he's opened the door. >> and in that case prosecution and go right in and show how he has made statements that have threatened the jury and threatened witnesses. >> so it's all up to him. >> another parallel potentially for somebody willing to take the stand, judge, the doris cordill. thank you so much for joining us this evening thank you. thank you. you're honore. next, a lifelong republican. >> now, ditching trump. saying enough is enough. why former georgia is he like governor geoff duncan said that he is now boeing get this for joe biden in november plus evacuations and new for heard and southern gaza after israel says a ceasefire proposal, headed by hamas is far from its demands tonight, the new pressure on yongle and president biden you open your mailbox and see the envelope from we're health insurance

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million say, i use splenda i learned thoughts on capitol hill and this let's set or will

you commit to accepting the election results of 2024? >> bottom line at the end of the day the 47th president united states will be first it donald's shop. >> and i'm excited to get back to low inflation, low unemployment senator, yes or no? yes or no will you accept the election results of 2024, no matter who wins? >> that is my statement how many leaks? >> i said what i said, we'll talk about verbal gymnastics and under tim scott repeatedly refusing to say that he got the results for 2024 election, maybe because he might just happen to be on this green on the shortlist to be donald trump's next vice president. not on that list, of course, is the former lieutenant governor geoff duncan is why the georgia republicans, who was pressured to change the election in 2020. and tonight, he is revealing in a brand new op-ed that he is voting for president joe biden

in november he's also urging fellow republicans to do the same quote and i read a little portion of it. >> the healing of the republican party cannot begin with trump as president mesto from the untold damage at potentially awaits our country. >> polo commentator, former lieutenant governor of georgia at geoff duncan joins me now. so good to have you on the tenant governor in recent weeks. we've seen a lot of long time critics of the former president publicly saying that. so what i'm still going to vote for him, you actually voted and campaign for mac in 2020 why the change of heart now? >> well, we've been faking this long enough as republicans, donald trump's not a republican. he doesn't represent our brand. he doesn't represent our future. he's a horrible human being at this point. we're watching that play out hour-by-hour in the courtroom and we've been jamming this square peg through a round hole long enough, and it's time to turn the page. it's time to move on. if we're going to heal as a party and truly get back to doing the things that we should do. and

that's be conservative, but not angry or crazy, or liars. we should, we should turn the page immediately from donald trump. and so that's really what i'm calling for it. it looked listening two clips like tim scott that you played coming into this is just painful. it's painful to listen to this. it's time to turn the page and move on. >> you've called out mitch mcconnell. you've called out your hampshire governor krista nunez. you've called out bill barr for all supporting trump and they all say, look, it's because of the policy. now you have proposed that perhaps you have because going vote down the rest of the ballot as republicans to try to block by legislative agenda but then still vote for biden as the top of that ticket but wouldn't that mean that notothing really get done in washington for four years of bats, the follow does anybody think anything's gonna get done if donald trump's the president i mean, all he's going to do is go on. there's been dead a tour around the world. there's nothing that's going to be done. in fact, i would argue that would be more damaged done. look to play for a conservative like me that

cares about the future of this country is to build the necessary majorities in the congress so that we can have a meaningful checks and balance system if joe biden's a president and look, i've said this in the op-ed. i'm voting for a decent person that i disagree with on policies over a criminal defendant who has no moral compass. and that's not tough to argue. those are proven facts well, in the past, i've heard from many republicans will say, look, if i can't bring myself to vote for trump, i'm going to write in someone else. i'm still not going to vote for a democrat. >> you say you're going to vote for president biden. >> there has been a lot of criticism. i'm sure are coming your way for doing just that are saying just that. >> how do you respond to people who say? >> they have a third party option, right? someone else in but why vote for a democrat look sometimes the best way to learn your lesson is to get beat. >> and donald trump needs to get beat. we need to move on as a party. we need to move on as a country. and certainly i've got concerns with some of the policies the president biden follows and i hope to be able

to like many other a be able to sway their influence on immigration and other issues that we disagree with wholeheartedly. but look to think donald trump's wholeheartedly a conservative is just fake news at its finest. donald trump's not a conservative. he, he rationed $8 trillion worth of debt during his presidency. he told us he was going to build a wall. he built a photos photo station down at a doubt the border. this guy is a fake republican. we have to move on as republicans, we have two. and this is our first step. do it, look, there's a lot of folks sitting at home that have said out loud on tv that they're supporting donald trump, but there are watching this play out right here. they're reading this op-ed, wishing they probably had the courage to do the same thing it's time to turn the page as public ins and move on. >> we'll talk to you about georgia particularly because as you know, the polls show that there is a pretty close race for the presidency between biden and trump and he's actually leading according to the polling, it's, it's not so far away, but leading in georgia, which is a very important swing say, who can't see the screen, they have 51%

towards trump 45% for biden in among georgia voters will voters in georgia, which has always been a unique place since 2020 in particular, will heed your warning i think georgians are going to vote against donald trump, right? i mean, at the end of the de, you have to win the suburbs in georgia if you're going to win an election, brian kemp prove that he won the suburbs he showed them that he was a job creator. he was honest human being. you did the right thing when it counted the most. and donald trump's not done that when these court cases play out on tv and suburbs, specific typically women in the suburbs are paying attention to these cases. there's not a single one of them that's going, oh, you know what i've changed my mind on this donald trump guy. he's just a fantastic human being. he's a perfect leader for our country. that's just not happening. i think as we get closer and closer to november, this election is going to pull further and further away from donald trump. and therefore joe biden i will end up walking away with the selection. >> geoff duncan. thank you so much. i want to continue our conversation with our panel here we've got female little

commentator maria car dona, former republican congressman joe walsh, former state department spokesperson. they are hoc and molly ball is also back with us. so joe i mean is the former lieutenant governor geoff duncan a bit of a republican unicorn yes, he is. >> look, i give them laura, a lot of credit because it takes courage and i know this myself as a republican four years ago when i came out and stood up and said, i support joe biden i knew at that moment as a republican, i was ending my careers are republican what geoff duncan is doing right now is he's ending his careers are republican it takes courage because unlike chris christie and bill barr and all the rest who say trump sucks, but i won't vote for biden. i give them credit, but look, they're not moving on from trump i give duncan credit, but he says this isn't trump's not a republican bull crap. this is what the republican party is now. it's his party it's not my party and sat duncan's party. >> he agree was a career

suicide. i mean, that in georgia, in particular. >> well, it depends on how much of the map and how much of the party is still going to survive after the election, right? the majority of the american electorate, right now is independent. and that's because of the droves of people who have unregistered as republican and check the box saying, i and you have several members of congress who have resigned just as last year. they have not said it's because they're anti trump and pro biden. but the younger ones in particular, including my gallagher from wisconsin, are really important state. >> they are calculating that even if trump wins, that there is going to be life after trump but they're not doing what duncan is saying right now, which is coming out directly against him they are stepping back hoping that there's going to be an alternative future. what did democrats do with this? i mean, there's dunkin, somebody, if he is a unicorn, is it helpful to have this out there? does this help them to budge restroom campaign? >> i think it absolutely is helpful for or brave souls like geoff duncan, like joe walsh and others to come out and to

publicly say what kind of an existential threat donald trump will be. two are country, because geoff duncan is very well-respected especially in georgia. i think he could make a big difference in that incredibly important state as he talks about this. and my hope is that he will continue to talk about this and talk about the importance of making this moral choice, not just for the future of the republican party. and i agree with you, this is no longer the republican party that you all grew up with. but it can be again, because a party, the survival of a political party can't just depend on one person that will be gone when trump is gone we need to make sure trump has gone right now, maria, so should biden be actively reaching out to someone like duncan and having him guy rao should an absolute if he has or not this well, this just happened so let's give him what he might have an

iphone you can call it quickly. we have been taxed numbers going on, but but but i will say this, the campaign is absolutely focused on trying to rally anyone and everyone who understands what a threat donald trump is for the future of not just the party again, for the future of our democracy, for the future of everyone who lives in this democracy. and for the future of every single voter who was looking at this contrast, right? what this election is about, let me get you in here, molly, i'm really curious about your opinion on this. when you when you look at and when you heard from senator tim scott as well, i want that that second lieutenant governor geoff duncan to hear that the inability to give a straight answer, but there's a real political calculation. presenter attempts absolutely. and, you know, look, i think the biden campaign needs a lot more geoff duncan's & maria's point, they need to be doing a lot more to reach out to the geoff duncan of the world. and what i've heard from a lot of antitrust republicans are conservative leaning

independence is they feel like those overtures are not there now, maybe they're just not there yet and the biden campaign has done some sort of, i would argue nominal outreach to haley voters to say, you know, you're still casting these protests votes against donald trump come have a home in our party, but they had not really been trying to broaden out the tent. they seem to have so far mostly been focused on shoring up their base keeping liberals in the tent, preventing these disaffected young people in particular, from continuing to bleed out on that end of the campaign. so i will be very curious to see as we head into the summer in the fall, as the time gets shorter before november, if there is more proactive outreach, particularly on policy, because what i hear from a lot of those conservative leaning independence is that they are actually coming home to the republican party, but they tried boycotting. but which one are you talking about? are the ones that exist today? the one with trump in it because they look at the biden who promised to restore normalcy and order

and be a uniter and be moderate and a lot of them don't feel like that's the way that he's governed. so i think biden has some real work to do with that segment of the electorate. >> everyone's bed, what the challenge is going to be, of course, the fact that the policies don't align when you have a on the ballot, democracy. >> very important existential crisis is not polling as high as issues like women's health care and the economy we'll see what happens a lot to think about everyone standby, please, because ahead, israel steps up, airstrikes and southern gaza as a cease fire proposal accepted by hamas as fall short. so where do they go from here and how could president biden possibly influence it? >> that's ahead there comes a time when you realize the kitchen you used to love is ready for a refresh lot of cabinets to go design expert help you craft a look, you want with quality products. >> and today's designer styles and colors back by your transferable lifetime warranty out with the old in with the new it's that easy from design

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take over the palestinian sayyed, a crossing in southern gaza. the key entry point for humanitarian aid and just a short time ago the sound of gunfire could be heard on the egyptian side of that crossing. >> as glaciers coming just hours after hamas announced it had agreed to a ceasefire proposal brokered by egypt and khader. >> that's break celebrations and gaza. but it was short-lived. afterwards. it will be proposal accepted by hamas was far from israel's requirement. and we are learning that is different from the one israel of course, help to craft the mosque back proposal includes a call for a permanent end to the war, which is a red line for prime minister benjamin netanyahu. but israel says that it will i'll send negotiators to talk with the mediators. now within israel protesters, including some hostage families, have taken to the streets to call for the israeli government to accept this ceasefire deal. >> my panel is back here along with you and in global affairs analysts, kimberly dozer and

cnn military analysts as leyton, a kernel from the us air force. >> colonel leighton, israel appeared to have this pressure stepped up. but so what is the operation look like? now? >> we'll laura, i think the basic idea is that the operation looks like an encirclement to what they're going to try to do with the israelis are going to try to do is take the year, you're right by the border i wish there are indications that they're doing that, plus they may move in forces from the east. two tanks have already moved from israel into the eastern part of raffa and possibly also from the noise. so if they do that, they're going to encircle the area that they're targeting, how large that targeted area is, remains to be seen. but the big idea i think is that they're going to try to eliminate hamas as much as they possibly can within raffa. if they do that, then you are trying to basically create conditions on the ground. there'll be favorable able to netanyahu's being able to say that he has achieved some degree of victory. >> i want you to look for a second at these leaflets that were falling and i've been wondering all de, what was on

them and what specifically they were telling the people who were there and they were dropped by the idf and they were ordering immediate evacuation of residents in eastern raffa. and you can see it also is telling here's the translation. it's telling residents in specific block they are in danger. so how do you have an evacuation of this size even work? >> well, it really depends on everybody following the guidelines that the israelis have a software by block, block by block neighborhood by neighborhood. and they've i've had these, this grid system for awhile now and they're basically telling people to move according to those blocks. and if they do that, they say that they're going to be safe, but we know that the israelis have had some issues maintaining the degree of targeting precision that they need to in order to keep that happening, kim, i thought that biden warned against this, man, yahoo essentially is saying, and from that yahoo's point of view, he's got a limited window in which he can go after

yahya sinwar, other top hamas figures that he thinks that the israeli defense forces think our shelf touring in the tunnels beneath raffa if this conflict ends, and netanyahu can't point to taking out the top hamas leadership inside gaza. >> that is a political loss for him. and that spells almost certain loss at the next time, he runs for office. but also this onslaught, this threatened on slot seems to have goose hamas into blinking and saying yes to a ceasefire deal of course now we know it's there. terms as they see them that are acceptable. this is also a way to give netanyahu a black eye because now it's on israel, it's on netanyahu to say, oh, well, this isn't the deal that we signed up for. after you see all these celebrations in gaza, et cetera, this is also part of the challenge that we see when

you have these negotiations that are effectively lead by third parties and the parties aren't talking to read better. exactly. right. i mean, egypt kind of friend to everybody in this cutter directly tied to hamas and the united states being involved representing israel. hamas decided narratively, they were going to jump and they're going to say, hey, we're on board. we will do a six-week hostage release program, knowing i'm specifically that hostage release is the fundamental challenge that netanyahu was facing politically is getting his people back. and now israel is going to have to come to the table directly in order to be able to move this forward. >> i'll be quick. they're playing games. hamas is playing games and i know we call this netanyahu swore the entire work. if netanyahu were gone tomorrow, israel is going to go into rafah to do what they can do, eliminate hamas and politically at home. i think it's incumbent upon biden as much as possible to stand with israel well, and he has up until now. but as you know, there's a huge challenge

within his own coalition because of people who see the horrific images that are happening and that's what i am actually going to see what happens. i'm sure we all are in terms of how will israel act in this, this next? phase. >> will there be horrific images? >> will there be images that also then come back here? and goose up the protests that are happening. but i think at the end of the day, what people are going to wait four is what? what is biden going to do? and we're not going to see what biden does on a day-to-day basis. that is not his goal, he is going to have these conversations with netanyahu. they're not going to be made public nor should they, because that's not how you do diplomacy is you all very well know but he has been able to warn netanyahu in a way that i don't think any other leader has in terms of what the repercussions will be if he is not careful about how he adjudicates the swore. so molly i mean, if the fact that

netanyahu is the one to say no and biden at home is being blamed how does this play? well, look, i think biden has repeatedly sought to rein in netanyahu was mixed success. there have there are at least a couple of instances where that you could point to where the pressure from biden actually did cause netanyahu to pull back a little bit at the same time, we have also seen netanyahu repeatedly do things it's the biden told him not to do and i think that makes the president look weak happen is i just wanted to add biden is going to capitol hill tomorrow, giving a speech in honor of the holocaust remembrance. and i think this is a really important opportunity for him to reset the narrative about anti-semitism specifically, but also just to offer some moral clarity because i think his detractors on the left and the right feel that there has not been a moral vision guiding his his statements and often sort of equivocation as he's tried to sort of manage this war from a far. and so i think it's an important speed. this is the challenge that we have inside israel, is that what does that moral narrative? other than eliminating hamas? and there

are many people within israel who would argue that actually the elimination of hamas by occupying gaza has taken the distraction away, taking attention away from what's going on in west bank, what's going up in the north of hezbollah. and those are the security priorities. >> correlate and what are the impact of biden's influence on yahoo is there any there's a significant impact and i think the key thing to keep in mind as molly was mentioning the way in which the president is exercising his influence is very different from what you want people to do in a public domain. >> it is something where he's doing privately is making it work in a way? that is correct. from a diplomatic standpoint, whether wins him votes or not. of course, there's going to be a different issue, but it's going to be absolutely key to peace in the middle east, or at least the movement towards some type of piece. and that's exactly what python's great. that was the issue shoe that i know that you raised as well, kim, on this very point was going on behind scenes and there's so much more to unpack as these events are quickly unfolding want to thank everyone today and thank you

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