for years students lost their high school commencement to covid and now this. if there is a bright side here, people finding out which colleges can be trusted to keep their children safe. which colleges are serious about the academic enterprise and, you know, i continue to believe a few very timely expulsions in the best way to deter this in the future. >> yes, governor. totally agree with that. have to leave it there. thank you for being here. we appreciate it. >> another quick check on your money. stocks continue to climb higher. all of the news from last week. jobs day fueling the market higher. charles payne will continue to fuel it i am sure. >> thank you very much.

good afternoon. i am charles payne and this is breaking money. this market trying to regain composure after that april stumble. investors are back to rooting for bad news. the good news is economic data has been disappointing for the most part. we have two of the best navigating what is tricky navigation ahead. also, the king is holding cash what is cascading. 189 billion-dollar pile of dell. selling a lot of apple in praising tesla. has elon musk made a new friend? we will tell you how much this week in miami. not to be outdone. my take of california celebrating the high-speed boondoggle to nowhere. all of that and so much more on "making money." ♪

the market is back to bad news being good news. that is the phase we are read. an abundance of bad news. city economic surprise indicator the blue line is europe the orange line is the united states you can see them coming down here. this has been somewhat of a precipitous fall. the economic data coming in surprisingly much worse than wall street expected. this was friday's jobs report. i think that it will be lowered anyway. overall the trend going down to maybe starting to speed down. coming in much below. this is where we are now. this also was big last week. both ms. consensus and moving to contraction. the first time after 15 months of being an expansion.

this is what is really scary with both of them. services and manufacturing. both of them up big time. they are going down. prices are going up. this is not good news at all. of course, when it comes to issuance with the bond market because wall street would love to see the stockmarkets taking the sweep from the bond market. the bond market may be coming down a little bit. getting some elbow room. issuance folks this is a big problem. a risk running into $125 million brick wall. wall street, we started the market with this cautiousness. it is really where he some out there. still looking for something to catapult this market. chief investment strategist.

confirming two or three rate cuts to get it back in gear. your thoughts. >> yeah, i think it has been a moving target in a bit of a parlor game in terms of when will the flood start cutting and by how much. everybody that is a market watcher is at the mercy of the data. the combination with the labor market data. i really think, though, what has been a primary driver of equities has been the move-in bond yields not so much expectations among fed policy. there has been that very close relationship to what it has been doing since last summer. i think that that should be the area of focus in the nerve -- near term for the equity market the bond market. >> it is always more reasonable i guess. the bond market, hitting 4.7 on

the 10 year. pulling back a little bit. is there a number? 4.3% below their. >> it is hard to make a judgment as to the technical level. admittedly, money that is more speculative in nature that may trade off on the bond market side of things. i will not venture or guess they are. what was brought about was concerns about yields heading back up to the 5% level which is where they peeked out at the end of october. from late july to late october bringing with it a 10% correction a little bit more in the case of the nasdaq. some of the churn and weakness. a bit of a pulling back calming

some fears. whether there is some precise level that will initiate buying, just four-seven in part to give the market a lift as we are seeing today. >> there was a time there was hardly any cash. 200 billion probably. warren buffett lamenting the lack of opportunities out there to put his money to work. i want to ask you about this. i am another chart i want to share with the audience. going back to 2006 it is coming down significantly. yes strategist saying caches the different circumstance obviously having difficulty finding ways to use 189 billion. your thoughts. >> i think it is the right caveat there. look at warren buffett and what he is doing.

looking for opportunities for value in an environment where they are fairly rich. to liken that to say what individual investors should do is just the ultimate apples to oranges comparison. i think for individual investors caches very personal. especially given the chart you showed us in 2006 until the recent move up, so much of that time was in an environment where you have little to nothing. risk tolerance and investment on income in a safe fixed income side from treasuries makes a lot of sense. the desire is to grow the principal. i would not do that comp to any message and brookshire hathaway

and transferring that to what they should deal. >> before i let you go the title of your piece last week was life is good and something to the effect it is even great for large names. it is amazing. it is like gas be like for the large-cap mega cap tech names. here we are again today. supermicro. then you have amd advanced micro the thing is, it feels like when it is time to go through the foxhole for the last month utilities and staples are the only ones out. the same handful of names that lead that way and for investors that are not in these. it feels like you have to be in them. >> you have to be careful about not letting the concentration in your portfolio begin to mirror what has been the concentration in indexes like the s&p and nasdaq.

yet to be careful about rebalancing. one thing that is unique versus the late 1990s that the fundamentals underlying many of these stocks, cash rich companies in many cases earning more interest on their cash, paying interest on debt, i think that there is sort of a fundamental case that can be made. there is still the important discipline of rebalancing to make sure that as you get these big moves up, you consider turning some positions. not all in, all-out, sell everything, buy everything. the discipline that keeps your own portfolio from getting as concentrated as some of these indexes get when you are in the up string. >> discipline. believe me, folks, you will be glad you listen. thanks a lot, appreciate it. >> we are kind of talking about this.

limiting further value expansion i want to bring in victoria fernandez. i have on the board sort of an aggregate. we have, you know, enterprise valued at free cash flow, price of book, next 12 months pe. what are these valuations? what is really giving you the most pause? >> your viewers will know that we always look at these while we are looking at name support in our portfolio. return on equity, free cash flow what is giving us a pause right now is the pe. most people can look at that and see where we are coming from. the s&p in 25 times on trailing, 21, 22 times on forward earnings with where we are in the cycle, where inflation is, that should be more around 17, 18 times.

the growth in the pe over the past year, year and a half has been on the price side. we really need the earnings component to come in and fill that in. we are not so sure that earnings will continue with the growth pattern that we have seen especially if margins are getting compressed, companies losing pricing power. this is where we are seeing a lot of concern is what these pe valuations are. >> i want to talk to you about, there's a little bit of a banter 150 day. a little bit above it. convictions not necessarily their. i love what you wrote about a tradable loan. i think we have checked out. in the middle of a balance, per se. when you pull the trigger you need to go back and make a lower low. >> you do. historically that is typically what you see. you are right. we finished the first step in k below for all of the major

benchmarks. we are in a little bit of a rally right now. we are looking for that greater pullback. thinking close to the 200 day moving average for the s&p. applets is around 4800. that is where we would see the tradable low and that is where we would shift positions out of defensive and into things a little bit more in a recovery play. we are not there yet. the interesting thing is you have an election year with more stimulus coming in. it will be hard to see that happen. >> i really appreciate you giving us these numbers. something our viewers can put on their screens and keep an eye on i do have some longer-term body and spirit ranger, visa, verizon tell me, what do they have in common. what makes you comfortable with them right now? >> like what we said in the beginning of our conversation. visa has a return on equity around 45%. granger has a return over 61%.

they all have great free cash flow growth. dividends, consistency of earnings. these are the things that we look for. all three of these names have that. it allows you to have it in your portfolio for the longer-term. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you, charles. >> news over the weekend from warren buffett. increased his position in apple. he may be looking at tesla. stock traders almanac here to break it down. you should be doing your portfolio right now. we will be right back. ♪ i want to dance with somebody ♪ ♪ with somebody to love me ♪ ♪ i want to dance with somebody ♪ ♪ i want to feel the heat was somebody ♪ ♪ i want to dance with somebody ♪ ♪ with somebody to love me ♪ ♪

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this generation is so dramatic! move with xfinity. charles: as i said at the start of the show, lots of hope that this month may we will be able to shake off that april decline. nobody knows about the history of the market more than my next guest. i will bring in tran nine.

the rate table that you have had you are sharing it with us. we are talking about a great first quarter. >> up strong and down in april. we will focus on where we go here the last eight months. it does not look too bad. there are some bright red spots there. >> you see more yellow in the middle of that section. even made. the worst six months to sell in may. unless you have a situation like the eisenhower recession, double dip and 81 and the.com bubble. >> very unique. we are not talking about the.com bubble right now. >> no. nai tech boom right now. >> we should feel pretty good. maybe even taking advantage of red in these. >> don't panic. like your friend warren buffett you were talking about earlier.

>> lots of interest rates. >> 189 bill, too? >> okay. cool. is it more than normal, your cash position? >> the best six months on april 2. we are pretty pleased with the timing system and the seasonality right now. >> we talked a lot about this in the past. presidential years. >> just election years. we were ahead of the game and we pullback which is fine. >> still a little bit more weakness here going through memorial day, the end of may. the thing we are concerned with this, you know, a lot of hand -- headwinds right now. interest rates, a couple of wars going on. it may be a little softer than this average. >> maybe like this then? >> the bias to the upside. >> eight-15% as our year end outlook for the year.

charles: let's talk about some other things. your outlook, you talk about the soft landing. >> still soft landing. charles: at least two great cuts then. >> at least one. maybe two. they are looking at things. we have seen the moderation. we did get softer job data. charles: what worries you now then? what are you most concerned about? >> the 10 year. some sort of the sick and the economic numbers. something unpleasant going on outside. charles: let me tap your brilliance with three stocks coming into the week. earnings, disney in the morning. >> we are out of disney. it is rich. i see better opportunities elsewhere. charles: i am not sure what a ppl list.

buffett sold 13%. he still owns gobs of it. >> he is repositioning in may. >> he is talking about repositioning tesla. would you do that? >> coming up to the end of the best eight months for nasdaq which runs through june. i think both apple and tesla have some issues with china. i am not jumping. i still hold the cues i'm not jumping at tesla. charles: overall tech in general >> yes, sir. charles: leading the day again. all right, folks, u.s. french and british bonds in for a rude awakening. they will have the same fate or could as the turkish bonds. that is next. ♪

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♪ charles: lately investors have really had to deal with a perfect storm of mixed economic data for the most part. the tides just keep shifting. >> we get economic data that shifts the pendulum. it is the inflation metrics that

really -underscore appoint you just made up around shifting tides. most seem to be on a glide path towards a soft landing. even a couple of them were below the fed's 2% target. they have all turned upward this year. that is not what the fed wants to see. rate cuts are on pause. we were moving in the right direction when you look at the nominal versus real yields. that uptick in first-quarter inflation, you can see it just here in the blue. it had those expected. it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that rates weren't going to be moved. last week fed chair made that very clear when he reminded investors and consumers any cuts will have to wait. consumers don't seem to be missing a beat. if you look at household net worth and years of consumption, we are still in the positive when you think about the wealth

effect. it is coming at the expense of savings. look at how much that has dropped. charles, what is really happening is it looks like the rich have gotten so much richer. they are the group really caring the economy. the message is let them eat cake , but that would be impossible for most attending the f1 race in miami over the weekend. something i would like to do at some point. look at these prices. this is a menu from f1 miami. no markup very much what you would expect like bottle service in las vegas. $190 -- for a fruit cup? >> at these prices you could. i am looking at the menu. without fruit refresher and added caviar, it may be one helluva fruit refresher. thanks a lot, kelly. joining me now, will denyer.

let me start with something your colleagues wrote about a week ago. to me, it was shocking. i thought it would get even more press. comparing u.s. bonds and european bonds to turkish bonds. it is just gone. four lack of a better word a worthless investment. what do you make? that is a pretty tough thing to say. >> i would call it a regular bear market in ocd bonds as a result of way too much issuance. fiscal incontinence combined with monetary policy tightening. adding up to a really bad supply demand dynamic. turning turkish phenomenon is this idea that things could get a lot worse from here. that is where you have complete loss of confidence in the currency. letting the inflation get way out of control. replacing central bank chiefs

every few months. equities go through the roof. that is why my colleague is worried and actually thinks it is a core scenario turning turkish. real assets not touch bonds or cash. i personally think that it is a tail risk for now. once powell gets replaced, the risk with the political lackey, for now a difference of views. i think powell has given us every reason to think he is credibly targeting 2% inflation. that is why the dollar rises every time inflation goes out. at fault every time we get us offer inflation number. the market thinks powell is really trying to get to 2%. i don't think we have turned completely turkish yet. charles: to your point, powell did -- maybe it was brought up in a q&a -- he did go to great lengths to say politics will

play no role in the decision-making, but he may end up cutting right before the election. >> right. if you look at election years, back to 1972, which i've done, they have cut rates in the month leading up to elections. they are very capable of doing it. changing policies right before. at the inflation data calls for it, i think he will. the base case is that that is on hold. we had a very clear this inflationary trend last year as was shown on my chart earlier. and then in the first three months of this year, that reverse. a scarab inflation rebounding. that basically reset the clock. seeing three-six months of benign inflation data before it has the confidence to start cutting. >> we used your charts. fantastic charts. thank you for lending them to us to kelley's point with this down

at the hard rock cafe, i don't know if i can recall a time when the bifurcation between the haves and have-nots have been this intense. what worries me is fed policy is based on the aggregate. as long as wealthy people have a lot of money, poor people in middle income people will take high credit card rates, high auto loan rates. it just feels like something is wrong with this. >> i think the monetary policy apparatus is very blunt. i am actually glad they are not trying to target specific things i get more concerned when they try to address climate change in income inequality. >> that gets back to your earlier statement. i am on pins and needles because i just believe we will do those things. we will target climate change in those things. it is just a tough circumstance for the average american out there to hear that the economy

is booming in their own personal circumstances may not be. >> absolutely. i've been buying food here recently ended shocking. charles: great stuff. keep up the good work. >> you guys are great. charles: i want to go back to kelly o'grady. we will continue this conversation. corporate bonds. kelly. >> investing in 2024 you can release some that up largely as owning the magnificent seven offset by seeking yields. record shattering cash. you look at cumulative annual flows. they are almost double what we have seen in recent years. after the jobs report on friday, last week's fixed income picked up the pace does all the factors finished higher. this is your style box. shows the investment characteristics across interest rate sensitivity and credit quality. the one week outlook, you know,

pretty good. all positive. all up. the year to date outlook has still been a real struggle. your upper right-hand corner, the high credit quality, up significantly. if you look at the yearly outlook, down pretty significantly. i also want to show you, if you go to this guy right here, this is, just have to look at my notes here, intermediate corporate bonding yield 4.11. approaching a key resisting point. yell both your relative strength index as well as your roc surging. look at how much this has changed. you go back to the beginning of april, closer and closer to that really key 70 mark. but, i also want you to look at the, rather, excuse me there, charles, just having a quick moment here.

thank you, charles. again, you look at the rsi versus the roc and you are seeing and even more attractive point. heading towards a breakout point , charles. >> great stuff. lots to break down. we appreciate you. here we are. bonds are attractive. particularly, corporate bonds. they do come with a fair amount of risk. jpmorgan -- that is a mouthful. let's talk about this for a moment. i think last time you work years you were still relatively bullish with respect to corporate fixed income. >> yeah, that is correct. there is really two components to the guild that you received when you land to a company. one is the treasury yield and then there is a spread on top of that. that is the additional compensation that you get for lending to someone that is

slightly less creditworthy than the u.s. treasury. what we have seen more recently as spreads have been very stable >> what does that mean? i love the way you are breaking this down for the audience. a lot of people are not aware of this. the spread is steady. the beginning of the year, the concern it was widening. >> this is the key. the majority of the volatility in fixed income has been coming from the risk-free rate. the treasury yield moving up and down. we have seen a lot of volatility in the economic data. the fed is data dependent. that is driving volatility. when you look at the credit spread on top of that, that has

actually been fairly stable. when you add those two components, a treasury guild at four and a half percent, another 200 basis points, 2% of additional credit compensation, you can build yourself a portfolio. around six-7%. a significant pickup above cash. companies still performing very well on the aggregate. >> with those still be considered junk bonds? >> you don't need to move there to get a pretty good yields. the interest rate environment as a whole has changed so much. if you think back to when the fed was talking about transitory , we were doing qe. now the fed has raised rates by 525 basis points. they are doing qt. an environment where there is finally income back in your portfolio. it is very attractive for someone diversifying a building more of your traditional 6040. >> the unemployment rate goes to 4.1%. if he gets that surprise, that shock, maybe to paraphrase, that

would be the key to start cutting. certainly, wall street will react that way. what kind of risk does that present for someone sitting in these bonds. i have 6%. i am okay. with their world change overnight? >> the type of environment we are seeing right now, the labor market is cooling. it is cooling very gradually. a good environment for fixed income. over time you would expect yields to start moving lower. you pick up the income and you will get some capital appreciation. downside protection if things get worse. you are picking up on something really interesting in terms of the trends in unemployment. we keep focusing on the fact that the unemployment rate is below 4% so everything is fine right now. we have been below for 29 months that is a really long time. we are starting to see that level tick higher. about a half% above the lows. the standard unemployment rate.

if you look at the underemployment rate, it also includes part-time for economic reasons. that has actually become almost 1% higher from the lows. we are starting to see that cooling under the surface. that is why fixed income is so attractive in terms of the risk reward. >> i always think of hemingway and a sense it was gradual and still it was fast. [laughter] i've got to go. i want you to keep coming back if you can. this is a big area. an opportunity for investors. an area where people have very little knowledge. thanks a lot, kelsey. >> absolutely. thank you, charles. i have another guest here. a wall street legend. he wants to sell. but you do have to rotate. he will explain, next.

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we have already heard a couple times in this show cell and it may go away. my next guest says no way. joining me now is sam stovall.

a living legend on wall street. i am not even sure how this came along. the better thing to do is to rotate. how does that work? >> hey, charles. good to talk to you. a lot have been introduced to the stock trader's almanac over the years. a six-month perspective, november-april gaining almost 7% whereas the s&p's return may- october has been only about one and a half percent. investors think, you know what, the market is taking the summer off. they are focused on their tan more than their portfolios. maybe we should do the same thing. actually, one and a half% return annualized is better than you would usually get in cash and there are a lot of years in which the market did quite well through that. >> i work on my tan and the

market all the time. of course we know that each may also has its own unique factors. right now we have a presidential election, the world on edge, how does that change things? >> well, individual months, it would make some changes, but for that six month period, usually it stays fairly consistent. may is a ho-hum month in terms of price performance. in terms of the strongest may, the weakest may, volatility, et cetera. the. you want to worry about the most is usually the third quarter. in particular, september. the only month to not only posted client on average, but to fall more frequently than it rose. the s&p 500 in the month of september. a lot of it i think has to do with mutual fund windowdressing.

let's get rid of the dogs that we don't want to admit we have been holding for too long. >> let's talk about some of the upgrades. i love the ideas that you share with us. >> thank you. our analysts have upgraded a few shares recently. we upgraded to buy reflecting the growing. addressable market opportunity in a ipc smart phone content. and autonomous cars. vulcan materials found in the material sector seeing positive demand for aggregates and we think double digit earnings growth coming for the next three years. lastly, and real estate investment trust, it is ahead the approved leasing activity. our belief is this is one of the companies within the group that will be leading the way. charles: full disclosure. just this morning i feature to my subscribers for a dividend report. i love the story.

thirty seconds ago, this back and forth about the fed and cutting rates, how much does it really matter if you are looking at fundamentals of individual companies, sam? >> lower rates are important to the value because if you can discount cash flows or earnings by a smaller interest rate, then your ultimate value is higher. because you don't have higher interest rates eating away at your profit stream. charles: great stuff. that is why you are living legend. i appreciate you sharing your time and knowledge. >> disney is a big name. reporting tomorrow morning. my next guest says he would not bet against iger. what you should also be positioning. catching these moves before everyone. cannot wait to hear him. he has right after this. ♪

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charles: don't look now here come the semiconductors there was a note from city that pointed to the chip sales 58.000000000 up over 60% month over month that was driven mostly by analog microcontrollers interestingly city didn't increase their own for your full cast so they see 11% for the year i want to bring in capital management president and fox business contributor gary kaltbaum i know you're a semi conductor guy that is your key focus the chart that we have on the screen is tempting above the 50 day obviously a little bit off of the march hi, are you buying here? >> pullbacks and vicious action since march 8 and as we rallied up it's been vicious also, bottom line i've said this for years watch the semi's they leave the markets up and down

used to be the financials but the financials went by the wayside because 2008 in of the semi's keep going higher they keep busting to the downside bad and watch nvidia the end-all be-all back above the 50 day acting better if there's one complaint volume is a trousers i love large-volume it tells me the institutions have conviction i'm not sure we're there yet but the last three days are very compelling. >> speaking of buying a dip emerging markets are at a 50 year low versus the s&p 500 is at tempting enough for you? >> china and the emerging markets much better showing outperformance right now. i think pullbacks are valuable, you have a little bit of risk with china because what if they go into taiwan which i don't think will happen but definitely they finally have outperformance

right now and you continue to babysit as it goes but the fx icw eb, kweb and the eem emerging markets definitely on the big-time radar at this juncture with any pullback. charles: you would have to love the ratio. i know one thing that you talked about over the years with the gap openings the company reports opened up 55, i know you have a list what are some of the names are you looking at with the big gap openings averting season. >> just remember the reason why stopgaps because the company surprised wall street with much better earnings and sales growth which last a while because they have something new or great product and demand is strong so things like our vienna and garmin and sketchers really strong there has been a few others and not all of them work google gapped up and feeling the gap right now and some get to

extended too quickly but i keep a list and keep them on my front screen i tell you a year from now a bunch of these are going to be outperformance, again it comes down to a major acceleration of earnings and sales because of strong demand and the surprise on wall street. charles: is there one or two that you focus on that you may feel at any moment now. >> the bigger the gap the better i'm watching car vienna and garmin, there is a few others out there but you're going to need the market to help. charles: car vienna is making another big move today. the report tomorrow before the open i think to firms that i saw this morning upgraded would you be a buyer into the close? >> i don't buy before earnings but i grew been doing a good job when he came in he had one full move to get earnings back up so is looking at the expense side and the stock is performing much better i think it's still down 40% from the highs of 35 or 40% and has some room to go and i say disney is one of the

greatest brand names in history, they get it right the stock keeps going higher, estimates over the next earnings that are coming out are to be much better than last year i think there is a shot here but again i don't roll the dice before earnings i would be wrong seven out of ten times. charles: late last year the stock was at a nine year low, to your point all of those brands that was serious mismanagement and it feels like he's right to your point thank you will talk real soon. >> over the weekend the state of california and the high-speed authority were raked over the coals big-time so they posted photos of the first completed high-speed rail structures and i gotta tell you, look at this thing and looks like a slab of concrete the numbers are mind-boggling. it took nine years $11 billion due to how long it would take if you wanted to walk across the extent hundred feet five

minutes. it's nuts and there is a 32 page business plan and 34 billion last year the cost had risen to 128 billion, china has actually seen the high-speed rail. and twice as fast as california trains. the california high-speed rail would share some pictures and what the train station to get a look like one day i don't know why they wouldn't have the private sector in the first place i look at sr 71 the fastest ever develop from 1966 the blackberry, let's do that, liz claman over to you. cha.liz: